Quantifying Infrastructure and Disaster Management: A Simulation Augmented SEM Approach in Area od SCM

Abstract

This study develops and validates a quantitative framework for assessing supply chain resilience in U.S. manufacturing and infrastructure. Using 48 sector-year observations (2018–2025) and a simulation-augmented SEM approach, it examines how structural risks, strategic enablers, and institutional pressures shape resilience outcomes. Supplier concentration, disruption frequency, and climate exposure weaken resilience capabilities, while domestic capacity, digital maturity, and resilience investment strengthen them. Resilience capabilities mediate these effects, and institutional pressure amplifies the benefits of enablers. Scenario simulations show that moderate increases in domestic capacity and resilience investment (10–15%) raise the Resilience Index by 8–12%, with diminishing returns beyond this range. The study provides a replicable tool for benchmarking and demonstrates resilience as a measurable, policy-responsive system property.